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LES MATINALES DU CLUB
The German economy: towards a recession?
Mardi 14 janvier 2020, 9h00-10h30, 20 avenue de Ségur, 75007 Paris 

Séance présidée par Sébastien Jean, Directeur, CEPII

Intervenants

 

  • Prof. Dr. Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasts ; Deputy Director of the ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys, ifo Institute

  • Julien Pouget, Head of Economic Analysis Department, Economic Studies and National Accounts Directorate, INSEE

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According to the latest forecasts of the ifo Institute, the German economy will have grown by 0.5% in 2019. On the one hand, the industry is caught in the recession. Trade disputes hinder global trade and investment activity. German industry is particularly affected, as it is specialised in intermediate and capital goods. The automotive sector, one of the key industries in Germany, also faces particular challenges. On the other hand, growth is stimulated by supportive fiscal policies and continuous improvement in the performance of services and construction. A recession of the country's whole economy seems unlikely, but the question remains as to whether these observations indicate a trend towards a more modest export-oriented industrial sector and more active fiscal policies or simply a cyclical adjustment.

The presentation will be held in English and the Questions/Answers session in French and English.